The 2024 General Election is just five weeks away after Rishi Sunak's shock decision to send Britain to the polls on July 4, and data suggests the election will see a shake-up across Hertfordshire.
Using the best data locally and nationally, polling aces Britain Elects have mapped out what the results would look like if the election was held tomorrow.
While these are just projections, the data shows some very interesting results.
So, what do pollsters believe will happen at the General Election in your constituency?
Welwyn Hatfield - Labour GAIN from Conservative
Perhaps the most eye-catching result would come in Welwyn Hatfield where Defence Secretary and one-time Conservative leadership hopeful Grant Shapps is forecast to lose his seat.
Mr Shapps has a majority of 11,000, but polling suggests this would be wiped away, with Labour claiming a major scalp and installing Andrew Lewin as the areas new MP.
Projection:
Labour: 46 per cent
Conservative: 33 per cent
Reform UK: 9 per cent
Liberal Democrat: 5 per cent
Green: 5 per cent
Stevenage - Labour GAIN from Conservative
Another Labour gain is forecast in Stevenage, where Stephen McPartland is standing down. Labour candidate Kevin Bonavia welcomed Labour leader Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves to the area this week.
Projection:
Labour: 46 per cent
Conservative: 32 per cent
Reform UK: 9 per cent
Liberal Democrat: 5 per cent
Green: 5 per cent
St Albans - Liberal Democrat HOLD
In St Albans, Daisy Cooper is set to return to Parliament with an increased majority. The Liberal Democrat deputy leader took the seat from the Tories in 2019 and is projected to keep it comfortably next month.
Projection:
Liberal Democrat: 53 per cent
Conservative: 22 per cent
Labour: 10 per cent
Reform UK: 7 per cent
Green: 5 per cent
North East Hertfordshire - Labour GAIN from Conservatives
North East Herts could be the one of the closer races come Election night with Chris Hinchliff looking to overturn a majority of 18,000 against an as yet unnamed Conservative candidate.
Pollsters currently tip Labour to sneak home and make another gain in traditionally Tory territory.
Projection:
Labour: 32 per cent
Conservative: 30 per cent
Liberal Democrat: 15 per cent
Reform UK: 8 per cent
Green: 5 per cent
Harpenden and Berkhamsted (New constituency) - Lib Dem WIN
Finally is the new constituency of Harpenden and Berkhamstead, created after the most recent boundary reviews. The Lib Dems are on course for victory here in a seat comprised of former Tory strongholds.
Projection:
Liberal Democrat: 35 per cent
Conservative: 33 per cent
Labour: 15 per cent
Reform UK: 8 per cent
Green: 5 per cent
Nationally, the model projects a large Labour majority with Keir Starmer's party winning 417 seats, leaving the Conservatives with just 124 MPs.
It is of course important to note that these are just opinion polls, and the only poll that truly matters is when Brits go to the ballot box on July 4.
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