General Election 2024: What are the polls saying in Herts?

Back at the beginning of the campaign we looked at the opinion polls to see what could happen across Hertfordshire come election night.

Now, with just three days to go we're taking another look at the numbers to see what, if anything, the long campaign has changed in the minds of Herts voters.

Using the best data locally and nationally, polling aces Britain Elects have mapped out what the results would look like in your constituency if the election was held right now.

Welwyn Hatfield

Polls suggest Grant Shapps, the Defence Secretary one-time leadership hopeful, is facing an uphill task to cling on in Welwyn Hatfield.

Data shows his 11,000 majority may be overturned by Labour's Andrew Lewin.

Projection:

Labour (Andrew Lewin) : 42 per cent

Conservative (Grant Shapps): 30 per cent

Reform UK (Jack Aaron): 14 per cent

Liberal Democrats (John Munro): 9 per cent

Green (Sarah Butcher): 4 per cent

Stevenage

Another Labour gain is forecast in Stevenage, where Stephen McPartland is standing down.

Labour's Kevin Bonavia has a convincing polling lead that has widened since the election was called.

Labour (Kevin Bonavia): 44 per cent

Conservative (Alex Clarkson) : 28 per cent

Reform UK (Peter Hopper) :13 per cent

Liberal Democrat (Lisa Nash): 6 per cent

Also on the ballot paper will be Paul Dawson for the Green Party and Joshua Smith from the Christian Peoples Alliance. 

St Albans

In St Albans, polls suggest Daisy Cooper is set to return to Parliament with an increased majority.

The Liberal Democrat deputy leader took the seat from the Tories in 2019 and is projected to keep it comfortably on Thursday, with little change in the polling.

Reform's recent surge has seen them overtake Labour locally, although neither party is close to winning.

Projection:

Liberal Democrat (Daisy Cooper): 53 per cent

Conservative (James Spencer): 18 per cent

Reform UK (John Dowdle): 11 per cent

Labour (Sophia Adams Bhattii): 10 per cent

Green (Simon Grover): 5 per cent

Also on the ballot paper will be Dafydd Morriss for the Heritage Party and Stewart Satterly from the SDP.

North East Hertfordshire

When we first looked at the polls, NE Herts was looking like one of the closer races, but clear daylight has now opened between the two parties at the top, with Labour now five points clear (three up from a month ago).

Reform appear to have dented Conservative hopes in the seat.

Projection:

Labour (Chris Hinchliff): 31 per cent

Conservative (Nikki da Costa): 26 per cent

Reform UK (Steven Adelanto):19 per cent

Liberal Democrat (Ruth Brown):15 per cent

Green (Vicky Burt): 7 per cent

Harpenden and Berkhamsted (New constituency) - Too close to call

The race has tightened in the new seat of Harpenden and Berkhamsted, where pollsters have the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats neck and neck.

Five weeks ago the Lib Dems were two points clear but the latest projections have the Tories pipping them to the post, with less than one per cent in it.

Certainly one to watch out for on Thursday night.

Projection:

Conservative (Nigel Gardner): 35 per cent

Liberal Democrat (Victoria Collins): 35 per cent

Labour (Zara Layne): 16 per cent

Reform UK (Saba Poursaeedi): 9 per cent

Green (Paul de Hoest): 6 per cent

Also on the ballot paper will be Mark Patten for the SDP.

Hitchin (New constituency)

Hitchin sees two MP's from the last Parliament fight for one seat.

Polling suggests that Alistair Strathern is set to oust Bim Afolami, with Labour claiming the scalp of the Treasury Minister.

Projections:

Labour (Alistair Strathern): 39 per cent

Conservative (Bim Afolami): 34 per cent

Liberal Democrat (Chris Lucas): 16 per cent

Reform UK (Charles Bunker): 6 per cent

Green (Will Lavin): 4 per cent

Also on the ballot paper will be Sid Cordle for the Christian Peoples Alliance.

Nationally, the model projects a large Labour majority with Keir Starmer's party winning 436 seats, leaving the Conservatives with just 90 MPs.

It is of course important to note that these are just opinion polls, and the only poll that truly matters is when Brits go to the ballot box on Thursday.